This list is entirely made up of shifts in favor of Democrats, seems mostly reactionary to fundraising reports.
The single-handedly biggest surprise to me is the shift of KS-02 from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Boyda got killed in fundraising, and he still bounced the race in her favor… He obviously is seeing more there than we are.
There are 25 shifts, that filled up his entire “Recent History” list. It makes me wonder if there were more than 25 and I can’t see the rest because I’m not a subscriber.
Arizona-01 (Kirkpatrick v. Hay)
Likely Dem <—- Lean Dem
Arizona-05 (Mitchell v. Schweikert)
Likely Dem <—- Lean Dem
Arizona-08 (Giffords v. Bee)
Likely Dem <—- Lean Dem
California-03 (Dursten v. Lungren)
Likely Republican <—- Solid Republican
California-04 (Brown v. McClintock)
Lean Republican <—- Likely Republican
California-46 (Cook v. Rohrabacher)
Likely Republican <—- Solid Republican
California-50 (Leibham v. Bilbray)
Lean Republican <—- Solid Republican
Connecticut-05 (Murphy v. Cappiello)
Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat
Georgia-12 (Barrow v. Stone)
Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat
Illinois-08 (Bean v. Greenberg)
Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat
Illinois-14 (Foster v. Oberweis)
Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat
Indiana-03 (Montagano v. Souder)
Lean Republican <—- Likely Republican
Indiana-09 (Hill v. Sodrel)
Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat
Kansas-02 (Boyda v. Jenkins)
Lean Democrat <—- Toss Up
Maryland-01 (Kratovil v. Harris)
Toss Up <—- Lean Republican
Mississippi-01 (Childers v. Davis)
Lean Democrat <—- Toss Up
Missouri-09 (Baker v. Luetkemeyer)
Toss Up <—- Lean Republican
New Hampshire-02 (Hodes v. Horn)
Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat
Ohio-02 (Wulsin v. Schmidt)
Lean Republican <—- Likely Republican
Ohio-16 (Boccieri v. Schuring)
Lean Democrat <—- Toss Up
Pennsylvania-04 (Altmire v. Hart)
Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat
Pennsylvania-08 (Murphy v. Manion)
Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat
South Carolina-01 (Ketner v. Brown)
Likely Republican <—- Solid Republican
Tennessee-04 (Davis v. Lankford)
Solid Democrat <—- Likely Democrat
Virginia-11 (Connolly v. Fimian)
Likely Democrat <—- Lean Democrat
MD-01 to tossup? Surprising but good to see. Same with MO-09.
KS-02 moved from tossup to leand D the day after Boyda releases a horrible fundraising report? That’s a bit odd.
Many of the other moves just seem to be clearing up the dem held seats. Many of those he previously had rated have long since been locks for us to hold, such as GA-12.
DELAWARE | Governor: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat
MISSOURI | Governor: Toss Up to Lean Democrat
Both are logical. We’re up by about 30 points plus in Delaware and Nixon has a huge lead in Missouri.
Cook rating went from Solid to lean R not Likely R
Even though Jenkins had a great quarter, Boyda’s still got more cash on hand- and it was just revealed Jenkins (the KS State Treasurer) mismanaged something like $15 million in gasoline taxes & she skipped out on all of the meetings of the state employee retirement system board to campaign during the last quarter- while the fund lost $1 billion.
Lynn Jenkins is going down fast and will need every penny and more to salvage herself.
Glad to see CA-46 back on the map. Debbie may not have much COH against Rohrabacher, but that’s because they’ve been spending it on advertisments through the district. Also, I received this from the campaign today in the mail:
This race has definate potential, and Rohrbacher is scared. For the first time in decades, there are Rohrabacher for Congress signs, AND he is running commercials of his own… Which he only said that he would have to do if he entered panic mode. Well, Red Alert! Its panic time!